isiZulu
Ukuphathwa Okuqinile, Ikhwalithi Kuqala, Isevisi Ekhwalithi, Nokwaneliseka Kwekhasimende
Izinkampani ezinkulu zamafutha emhlabeni zihlangana ngesivumelwano esingu- $40 billion!
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, umkhakha kaphethiloli womhlaba wonke ubhekene nezinselelo eziningi: ingcindezi ye-energy transition, izingozi zezombusazwe, izidingo zokuqondisa izimali, kanye nokuguquguquka kwentengo kaphethiloli. Kodwa-ke, ekuqaleni kuka-2026, amaphrojekthi amabili amakhulu avele ngesikhathi esisodwa—iphrojekthi ye-Shell eNigeria kanye neye-TotalEnergies neConocoPhillips eLibya—ngalinye linamandla okutshalwa kwezimali afika ku- $20 billion.
Ngaphansi kwale miprojekthi ezimbili ezinkulu akukhona nje ukubuyiselwa kwamasu ezinkampani ezinkulu zamafutha zamazwe ngamazwe njengeShell, i-ExxonMobil, i-TotalEnergies, kanye neConocoPhillips ez kontinentini yase-Afrika, kodwa futhi kuyisibonakaliso senani le-Afrika njengendawo entsha yokuhlinzekwa kukaphethiloli negesi emhlabeni.
01. Izivumelwano Ezinkulu Ezimbili ZamaRandi Ayizigidi Eziyizinkulungwane Ezingama-20
E-Nigeria, isimemezelo esenziwe yi-CEO yeShell uWael Sawan sokutshalwa kwezimali okungaba ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-20 ekuthuthukisweni kwenkundla kawoyela iBonga South West, senze imingcele emakethe yamandla emhlabeni.
Ngaleso sikhathi, eLibya, isivumelwano esisayinwe yiTotalEnergies neConocoPhillips silindele ukuba siphindaphinde kabili ukukhiqizwa kwansuku zonke kweWaha Oil Joint Venture, kusuka kumalitha angaba ngu-350,000 ngosuku kuya kumalitha angu-850,000 ngosuku. Ngaphansi kwalesi sivumelwano, ukutshalwa kwezimali eminyakeni engu-25 kungafinyelela amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-20.
Iphrojekthi yeShell iBonga South West eNigeria
Ngemuva komhlangano noMongameli waseNigeria uBola Tinubu, umphathi omkhulu weShell uWael Sawan umemezele esidlangaleni ukuthi inkampani, kanye nabalingani bayo, bayasithuthukisa is projecti iBonga South West (BSW). Uma ifinyelela esigabeni seFinal Investment Decision (FID), ukutshalwa kwezimali okuphelele kungafinyelela ku- $20 billion. Le projecti, etholakala emanzini ajulile eNiger Delta yaseNigeria, kulindeleke ukuthi ibe namabhodlela angu-820 million kawoyela oluhlaza, okukhiqizwa okungafinyelela ku-220,000 amabhodlela ngosuku. Cishe u- $10 billion wokutshalwa kwezimali uhlelwe ukuthi usetshenziswe ezindlekweni ezinkulu, kanti okunye kuzobandakanya izindleko zokusebenza nezinye izindleko, konke lokhu okuzongena ngqo emnothweni waseNigeria.
IBonga South West yiphrojekthi enkulu yasolwandle ye-Shell eNigeria, enabalingani abafaka i-ExxonMobil, i-TotalEnergies, i-Eni, kanye ne-Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). I-Shell ingumnikazi wesabelo esikhulu. Iphrojekthi ibivinjelwe isikhathi eside ngenxa yezingozi zomthetho, zezindleko, nezombusazwe. Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni yamuva nje, uhulumeni waseNigeria wethule izikhuthazo zokutshala izimali ezifana nezinzuzo zezintela nezinqubo zokugunyazwa ezilula, zinikeza i-Shell "indlela ecacile yokutshala izimali." USawan uthe inkampani izoqala umsebenzi wangaphambi kwe-FID ezinyangeni ezizayo futhi ihlose ukuthatha isinqumo sokugcina sokutshala izimali ngo-2027.
Le phrojekthi ibaluleke kakhulu kuShell. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, le nkampani iye yashesha ukuhoxa emisebenzini yayo yasemanzini aseNigeria, okuyimisebenzi ekhulula ukungcola okuningi futhi evame ukubandakanyeka ezingxabanweni zemvelo, yagxila kakhulu emisebenzini yasemanzini ajulile ukuze ihambisane nomgomo wayo wokuthi "akukho ukukhishwa kwe-carbon ngo-2050". Ngo-2024 kuphela, iShell yakhokha izigidi ezi-5.34 zamadola aseMelika ezintela nezinye izimali eNigeria—okungaphezu kwanoma yiliphi elinye izwe—lokhu kugcizelela ukuzibophezela kwayo esikhathini eside kuleli makethe.
Iphrojekthi ka-TotalEnergies kanye noConocoPhillips iWaha Oil Project eLibya
Uhulumeni waseLibya usayine isivumelwano seminyaka engu-25 neTotalEnergies kanye neConocoPhillips sokuthuthukisa imingxuma kawoyela nge-Waha Oil Company joint venture, ngokutshalwa kwezimali okulinganiselwa ukuthi kuzodlula u-$20 billion. Lesi sivumelwano sihlose ukukhulisa umthamo wokukhiqiza we-Waha block ukusuka kumalitha angaba ngu-350,000 ngosuku kuya kumalitha angu-850,000 ngosuku, okubandakanya ukuthuthukiswa kwezingxenye ezine ezintsha zikawoyela kanye nohlelo olunzulu lokuhlola ezindaweni eziyi-19. Abalawuli baseLibya balinganisela ukuthi le phrojekthi izokhiqiza imali engaphezu kuka-$376 billion ezweni kuyo yonke impilo yayo.
ILibiya yayiyikhiqizi enkulu kawoyela e-Afrika, ngokukhiqiza okuseduze nezinga leSaudi Arabia ngaphambi kwempi yombango ka-2011. Ukukhiqiza ngemva kwempi kwaqhubeka kuncane, kodwa ngo-2025, ukukhiqiza kwabo okuphakathi kufinyelele ku-1.37 million barrels ngosuku—izinga eliphezulu eminyakeni eyi-12. Lesi sivumelwano sikhombisa ukubuyela kwabamabhizinisi omhlaba kawoyela eLibiya, besebenzisa izinsiza zabo zokukhiqiza ezisezingeni eliphansi, ezisezingeni eliphezulu ukuze zengeze ukuhlinzekwa komhlaba.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokusho kukaWalid Ellafi, uNgqongqoshe Wezwe Wezindaba Zokuxhumana Nezindaba Zepolitiki zaseLibya, ngaphandle kwesivumelwano sokubambisana esisayinwe neTotalEnergies neConocoPhillips, kwasetshenziswa nezinye izivumelwano eziningi. Lokhu kufaka phakathi isivumelwano neChevron ngamathuba okutshala izimali, ikakhulukazi mayelana namathuba okuhlola eSirte Basin kanye nokuphinda kuthuthukiswe imingxuma kawoyela eseqedile, kanye nesivumelwano sezokuthutha kwamandla nokuhlola neGibhithe. Naphezu kokungaqiniseki kwezepolitiki okusaqhubeka, izinguquko zaseLibya ezithandwa ngabatshali bezimali namandla amakhulu ziye zakhanga umhlaba wonke.
Both projects involve investments of approximately $20 billion, underscoring that Africa has become one of the key regions where oil giants are still willing to commit substantial capital even in an era of fiscal discipline.
02. Why Africa
At a time when oil giants are increasingly emphasizing capital expenditure discipline, why have two $20 billion mega-deals landed in Africa one after another? The reasons are closely tied to Africa's substantial oil and gas reserves, cost advantages, and the ongoing improvements in its market and policy environment.
Oil and Gas Reserves and Low-Cost Advantages
I-Afrika inezinye zezinsiza zomhlaba ezicebile kakhulu ezingasetshenzisiwe zamafutha negesi. Ngokwedatha ka-2025, iLibya inezinsalela eziqinisekisiwe ezilinganiselwa ku-48.3–50 billion barrels, ibeka isikhundla sokuqala e-Afrika; iNigeria ilandela ngama-barrels ayizigidi ezingama-37, ibeka isikhundla sesibili. Amanye amazwe njenge-Algeria, iGibhithe, ne-Angola nawo abalwa phakathi kwabaphezulu. I-Afrika iyonke ibalwa cishe ku-7–8% wezinsalela zomhlaba eziqinisekisiwe, kodwa amazinga ayo okuhlola ahlala ephansi kakhulu, nezinye izindawo eziningi zisasesigabeni esithi "frontier".
Izindleko zokukhiqiza uwoyela ongahluziwe waseLibya ziphansi kakhulu, nezinye izinkundla zamafutha zisebenza ngaphansi kuka-$20 nge-barrel, ngaphansi kakhulu kwesilinganiso somhlaba. Lokhu kunikeza amaphrojekthi aseLibya izinga eliphezulu lokubuyisa phakathi kwezintengo zamafutha eziguquguqukayo. Yize ukuthuthukiswa kwamanzi ajulile eNigeria kubiza kakhulu, kunikeza uwoyela ongahluziwe wekhwalithi ephezulu, ingqalasizinda evuthiwe, futhi kugwema ubungozi bokwebiwa kukamafutha ezindaweni zasemhlabeni kanye nezingxabano zomphakathi.
Umhlaba wonke wokuhlinzekwa kukaphethiloli ubhekene nezingqinamba. Ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa yi-OPEC+, ukukhawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweRussia, izingozi zezombusazwe eMiddle East, kanye nokungapheleli kokufakwa kukaphethiloli nge-energy transition kusho ukuthi kuzodingeka amandla amasha okukhiqiza eminyakeni eyi-10–15 ezayo. Izikhungo ezifana ne-International Energy Agency (IEA) zibikezela ukuthi isidingo esikhulu sikaphethiloli singase libele kuze kube maphakathi nawo-2030s, okubeka amandla okukhiqiza aphansi e-Afrika njengesengezo esibalulekile.
Imakethe EyiNqenela kanye Nemvelo Yenqubomgomo
Phakathi kuka-2025–2026, amanani kawoyela ahlala esikhathini esihle kakhulu (ama-USD 60–80 nge-barrel), kodwa izinto ezisetshenziswa emhlabeni wonke zanda futhi imakethe yayihamba ngendlela yokuba nezinto eziningi kakhulu. Izinkampani ezinkulu zikwazise "ukuqonda ngezimali", zibeka phambili amaphrojekthi anenzuzo enkulu nezingozi eziphathekayo. Amazwe ase-Afrika aphendule ngezikhuthazo: izinzuzo zentela "ezihlobene nokutshalwa kwezimali" zaseNigeria nezivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokuvumela ukuhlola kanye nokuzibophezela ekuhloliseni zaseLibya kunciphise izithiyo zokungena.
Ngaphandle kwalokho, izinkampani ezinkulu zikapharafini zamazwe ngamazwe zishintsha kusuka ezindaweni ezingaphansi komhlaba ezinobungozi obukhulu ziye emaphrojekthi asemanzini ajulile nasekuvuseleleni izindawo zikapharafini ezindala. I-Shell ishiye imisebenzi yayo engaphansi komhlaba eNigeria ukuze igxile ezindaweni ezijulile, kanti iphrojekthi yaseLibya ihlose ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa ezindaweni ezindala. Lezi zilungiselelo zihambisana necebo lokuthi "kuqondaniswe iphothifoliyo" ngenkathi kuhlangatshezwana nezimfuno zabahlomuli zembuyiselo.
03. Izinzuzo Zobuchwepheshe Ezishukumisa Ukukhetha Kwama-Oil Majors e-Afrika
Ukuguqula izindawo eziningi zikapharafini negesi zibe ukukhiqizwa okubonakalayo nomholo kuyodinga ukwesekwa kwezobuchwepheshe. Ngemuva kokubheja kwezinkampani ezinkulu zikapharafini okubiza izigidigidi zamadola e-Afrika akukhona kuphela amandla azo emali kodwa futhi nokukhetha okuhambisana namakhono azo obuchwepheshe.
Izinzuzo Zobuchwepheshe Bokuthuthukisa Amanzi Ajulile eNigeria
I-Bonga South West yaseNigeria itholakala emanzini ajulile, enobunzima obudlula amamitha angu-1.000, okudinga ubuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe bamanzi ajulile. I-Shell yethule ubuchwepheshe obufana nemikhumbi ye-Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO), izinhlelo zokukhiqiza ngaphansi kolwandle, namakhono okulawula akude kakade ngo-2005 ngephrojekthi enkulu ye-Bonga. Lobu buchwepheshe buzothuthukiswa kakhulu nge-Bonga South West.
I-FPSO isebenza njenge-"fekthri entantayo" yokuthuthukiswa kwamanzi ajulile, ekwazi ukuphatha ukuhlukaniswa kukaphethiloli ongahluziwe, ukugcinwa, nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. I-Shell ihlela ukuthi ibophelele i-FPSO yesizukulwane esilandelayo ye-BSW, esekela amandla okukhiqiza aphezulu nokuphila okwandisiwe kokusebenza. Ubuchwepheshe obungaphansi kolwandle buhlanganisa amaphampu e-multiphase, imibhobho emide engaphansi kolwandle, nezinhlelo zokukhiqiza ezingaphansi kolwandle ezihlanganisiwe ngokugcwele, okwenza ukuthi kusebenze kahle ngaphansi kwezimo ezinzima ngenkathi kuncishiswa inani lezinkundla kanye nezindleko sezizonke.
I-Shell ineminyaka engaphezu kwamashumi amabili yomuzwa emkhakheni ongasenzansi olwandle eNigeria, futhi ozakwethu njengo-ExxonMobil kanye ne-TotalEnergies banamakhono afanayo. Lo mgoqo wobuchwepheshe uvumela izinkampani ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe ukuthi zibuse izifunda ezingasenzansi olwandle zase-Afrika, okwenza kube nzima ukuthi abadlali abasha babambe iqhaza esikhathini esifushane. Amaphrojekthi angasenzansi olwandle, anezimpilo ezinde zokusebenza kanye nemiphumela yokukhiqiza ezinzile, afaneleka kahle imvelo yamanje elawulwa yimali.
Izinzuzo Zobuchwepheshe Bokuthuthukisa Ukubuyiswa Kwamafutha (EOR) E-Libya
Iphrojekthi ye-Waha eLibya igxile emasimini kawoyela avuthiwe, isebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) ukukhulisa amazinga okutholwa. Izindlela ezifana nokugeleza kwamanzi, ukujova igesi (i-CO₂ noma i-nitrogen), nokugeleza kwamakhemikhali kungakhuphula amazinga okutholwa kusuka ku-30% kuye ngaphezu kuka-50%. Inkampani i-Waha Oil isikhathana isebenzisa izindlela ze-EOR, futhi ozakwethu bamazwe omhlaba baletha ubuchwepheshe obuthuthukisiwe, okuhlanganisa nokugawula okuyisicaba, ukuhlukana kweziteji eziningi, nokuqapha okuhlakaniphile kokujova-ukukhiqiza.
Emasimini kawoyela aseLibya kuzuza izimo ezinhle zezinto ezingaphansi komhlaba kanye nokungena okukhulu kwama-reservoir, okwenza afaneleke kahle i-EOR. I-TotalEnergies ne-ConocoPhillips banolwazi olunzulu lwe-EOR eNyakatho Afrika, okuvumela ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kokukhiqiza. Iphrojekthi iphinde ihlanganise ukuhlola amabhulokhi amasha, ihlanganise izinhlolovo ze-3D seismic, ukugawula okuhle kakhulu, kanye nobuchwepheshe bedijithali obufanayo ukuze kuncishiswe ubungozi.
Ngokubanzi, izinzuzo zobuchwepheshe bamaphrojekthi ase-Afrika zikhona: ukusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe obuphumelelayo ngabamabhizinisi omhlaba ukuze kuthuthukiswe izindawo ezinomthelela omkhulu, ezingakahlolwa kahle, okuholela emiphumeleni ephezulu; izithiyo eziphakeme zobuchwepheshe ze-deepwater ne-EOR, zakha izithiyo zokuncintisana; kanye nokunciphisa izindleko okwengeziwe okuqhamuka ngokudijithali nokwenza ngokuzenzakalelayo.
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